Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57–58°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7187e18af36a82ee09e784a69abffc6ba10c2e6b9fa8d382537325c45a88616c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 43c | 1,485$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.67 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…2518backed No | 54c | 1,177$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,174$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.34 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,020$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 69c | 688.07$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.19 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 45c | 475$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.25 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 426.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 38c | 343.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 22c | 337.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes | 54c | 330.34$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 324.88$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…f5eabacked No | 13c | 314$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 11c | 303.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 57c | 299.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 37c | 216.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.83 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 17c | 203.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa2…f43dbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 39c | 184$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.55 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 40c | 161.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 41c | 150.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 32c | 137.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 72c | 124.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 88.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 28c | 65.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 31c | 59.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 66c | 52.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…6fb2backed Yes | 79c | 51.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…6857backed Yes | 56c | 47.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…5fccbacked Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…7139backed Yes | 66c | 32.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57–58°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55–56°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.