Music · resolved market
Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7196db3e6b34d46c47781f76cf20cc3da6f7e562f654103ea25bb7f89fc49c60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 75c | 5,234$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked No | 25c | 4,360$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 73c | 977.1$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…e599backed No | 27c | 887$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 75c | 410$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 380.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked No | 30c | 267.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 26c | 221.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ecdebacked No | 26c | 216.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 21c | 138.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…d1d3backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…e89cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 24c | 129.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd7…ac41backed No | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 80c | 99.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 25c | 85.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…32edbacked No | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…6107backed Yes | 75c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…6bd4backed No | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c45…7f1dbacked No | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…a73fbacked No | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…8e1dbacked Yes | 76c | 57.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…4695backed No | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…3cd5backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…9321backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0023…107bbacked No | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…bf81backed No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…4bf0backed Yes | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…7814backed No | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…a845backed Yes | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…bb46backed Yes | 73c | 41.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 26c | 39.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…0c05backed Yes | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…e9a0backed Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…2997backed Yes | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95df…d0ecbacked Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…3722backed Yes | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde82…87b3backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…0b8bbacked Yes | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…5a91backed Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fa…24c4backed Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…204cbacked Yes | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…a1f0backed Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…da65backed Yes | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…640fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4e…5f51backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…e4b0backed Yes | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47a…aa0fbacked Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…cc67backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…72bdbacked Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…2f00backed Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5166…2329backed Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 75c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7464…8578backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Like A Bird" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Never Too Late" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Journey" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.