Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71a0b2bc500ab0fcd12ab94f1511f403f9875e142d3323832addc33d77ff9f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Rybakina | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Sabalenka | 31c | 1,970$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.3 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Rybakina | 70c | 1,357$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sabalenka | 30c | 1,001$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Sabalenka | 52c | 687.07$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.42 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rybakina | 66c | 591.18$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.18 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Sabalenka | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Sabalenka | 34c | 456.67$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.88 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabalenka | 40c | 354.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc37…8505backed Rybakina | 30c | 340$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Rybakina | 60c | 333.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Rybakina | 22c | 306.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rybakina | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Sabalenka | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Sabalenka | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Rybakina | 51c | 197.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 66c | 193.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Sabalenka | 32c | 189.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Sabalenka | 35c | 180.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.55 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rybakina | 65c | 150.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked Rybakina | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 331 | 49.2%163 W · 168 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd42…c4aebacked Sabalenka | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Rybakina | 69c | 107.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…e14cbacked Rybakina | 73c | 107$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Sabalenka | 27c | 107$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rybakina | 14c | 103.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Rybakina | 78c | 77.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Rybakina | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -19.3wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Rybakina | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Rybakina | 66c | 60.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Sabalenka | 30c | 56.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Sabalenka | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 432 | 42.4%183 W · 249 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sabalenka | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Rybakina | 66c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Sabalenka | 32c | 48.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Sabalenka | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Rybakina | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5c…3db4backed Sabalenka | 32c | 31.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Sabalenka | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Rybakina | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Rybakina | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 73.8%45 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Rybakina | 52c | 25.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Sabalenka | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 167 | 18.6%31 W · 136 L | -23.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Sabalenka | 70c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Sabalenka | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Sabalenka | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Sabalenka | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs RybakinaSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.