Tennis · resolved market
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90bcd3afe50c550707fa9d7a6680b4b014de9bf0b58e523c004e60b7e1159cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x931f…2e44backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 22,821$10,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,025.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 8,142$4,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924.53 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 5,608$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.4 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 4,017$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.64 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 2,134$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.17 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 441 | 63.7%281 W · 160 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 1,882$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.54 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 1,778$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 1,127$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.27 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 328 | 51.8%170 W · 158 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 885.01$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.04 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 862.64$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.49 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 665.19$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 518.13$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over 2.5 | 47c | 474.27$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 366.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 182 | 58.8%107 W · 75 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 364.84$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 316.33$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 315.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 281.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 249.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 207.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 178.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 175.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 163.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 151.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 147.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 124.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 378 | 54%204 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 103.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 94.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 89.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 72.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 31c | 71.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 67.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…bdf6backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 63.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 63.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 53.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf77c…61cabacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a5ffbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 43.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 41.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…0321backed Over 2.5 | 35c | 34.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…3054backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…b7e8backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 29.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 25.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…264fbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…6af8backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over 2.5 | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 53 | 77.4%41 W · 12 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs RybakinaSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.