TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,738 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins39c2,067$806 inLost-$806.034,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Chicago White Sox61c2,000$1,220 inWon+$779.992,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox61c772.33$471 inWon+$301.211,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Minnesota Twins39c769.23$300 inLost-$30013743.8%60 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins18c509$92 inLost-$91.5112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Chicago White Sox61c219.04$134 inWon+$85.4273748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Minnesota Twins18c172.5$31 inLost-$31.0594648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Minnesota Twins20c84.68$17 inLost-$16.946749.3%33 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Minnesota Twins39c75$29 inLost-$29.2556440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e2c…3488backed Minnesota Twins18c67.33$12 inLost-$12.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox61c62.8$38 inWon+$24.491,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins39c60$23 inLost-$23.468942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins38c50$19 inLost-$191,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins38c49.99$19 inLost-$191,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Chicago White Sox62c48.39$30 inWon+$18.3961450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Minnesota Twins39c40$16 inLost-$15.634843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox61c38.75$24 inWon+$15.112,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.