MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf77142f92b4e1e337338d74831a8ce506d12d68133b2792038272fab9f3151a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 1,816$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.68 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 55c | 1,423$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.6 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 56c | 1,398$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.6 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 56c | 1,398$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.6 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 44c | 999.95$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.97 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 698$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.94 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 45c | 683.79$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.86 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 669.94$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.22 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 632.46$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 492.61$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 445$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 56c | 433.55$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.79 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 378.24$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 44c | 333.36$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 50c | 239.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 56c | 172.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 167$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 56c | 164.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 153$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 116.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 108.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 44c | 104.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 53c | 74.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 47c | 53.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 44c | 52.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 56c | 36.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 35.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 56c | 28.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…615ebacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…5d90backed Over | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 56c | 18.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.