MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf58c469200872a1aac6352d1b438eb45c11ca009681bc4eeba7db3f42dcea6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 68c | 1,805$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.49 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 1,261$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 52c | 1,219$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 1,008$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 31c | 698$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 70c | 643.96$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.19 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 636.15$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 52c | 224$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 27c | 133.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 48.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.