TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,928 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Over47c1,813$852 inLost-$851.714,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under53c1,797$952 inWon+$844.4510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Over27c1,147$310 inLost-$309.7311748.7%57 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under72c1,128$813 inWon+$315.018,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under64c999.98$640 inWon+$359.992,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over36c302.5$109 inLost-$108.940341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over36c299.65$108 inLost-$107.871,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Over36c200$72 inLost-$727044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under72c133.99$97 inWon+$37.048,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Under41c121.95$50 inWon+$71.9533934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over59c121.95$72 inLost-$71.955,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over36c100$36 inLost-$361,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Over36c100$36 inLost-$3670744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over36c83.32$30 inLost-$29.913,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under64c75.68$48 inWon+$27.551,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under46c52.96$24 inWon+$28.826,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2110…d4fbbacked Under65c50.93$33 inWon+$17.9320962.7%131 W · 78 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under56c50.74$29 inWon+$22.2111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Over36c50$18 inLost-$1841637.5%156 W · 260 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over44c40.29$18 inLost-$17.78,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over36c35.71$13 inLost-$12.8661450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under57c30$17 inWon+$12.92,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under63c26$16 inWon+$9.632,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over45c23.75$11 inLost-$10.81,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.