Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f7f78104b806fc008c03a9019f076d1cf4521890e89d2ca039e7daba7ccb83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaed4…09afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…46febacked Yes | 18c | 988.43$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 856.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 734.49$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.17 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 17c | 492.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 74c | 489.58$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 425.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 16c | 398.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 386.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 6c | 362.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 330.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 294.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 5c | 291.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 5c | 253.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 76c | 243.29$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 237.3$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 188.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 21c | 186.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 9c | 177.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked No | 78c | 166$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 158.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 11c | 143.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 24c | 135.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 67c | 134.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 126.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 21c | 110.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 107.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 11c | 105.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 102.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 100.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 31c | 99.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 11c | 98.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 97.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 13c | 85.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 40c | 84.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 52c | 76.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 21c | 71.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 19c | 70.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 55.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 25c | 54.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 73c | 49.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5effbacked Yes | 25c | 48.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 46.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 75c | 41.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 58c | 38.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 54c | 32.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed No | 61c | 32.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…0f78backed Yes | 45c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.