TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,829 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No0c6,015$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.111,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked No5c5,957$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01bf…886ebacked No0c3,515$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.621250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda74…98ebbacked No2c1,241$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No1c1,049$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.492,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea4…4a77backed Yes75c764.38$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.183461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked No20c714.73$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes61c643.73$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.8224466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes68c575.19$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.688,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes56c499.99$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.7412735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No42c499$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.773,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes79c412.54$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes78c395.69$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.281,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No26c395.57$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2719057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes56c391.71$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No23c336.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes54c336.2$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.924245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No44c291.51$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.92,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes76c269.1$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4916263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes45c261.33$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.3919552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c237.3$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.415,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked No80c236.21$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1884362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6476…393ebacked No43c231.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes57c227.76$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5940132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfafe…066fbacked No68c226.5$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No39c222$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No22c218.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c210.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No26c210.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9231219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes58c210.73$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked No40c200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.523060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No21c199.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.063,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb385…3824backed No26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.924136.6%15 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes48c189.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.920025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7d…e08cbacked No28c188.52$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No41c178.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.773,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No33c174.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8325358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes59c170.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2317140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes70c167.85$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2529469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes52c166.44$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5526025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No16c161.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c8…4066backed Yes57c159.97$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.51050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c158.32$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.625,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes56c153.01$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes24c140$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No78c130.15$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4437942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No42c123.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.971,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes77c122.7$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6789661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes44c122.02$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No29c121.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.775,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes79c120.58$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.356431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No21c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe67…3932backed No37c115.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes58c112.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7716934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes63c109.97$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.692638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes56c108$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No44c102.82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8711663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes57c102.72$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6713553.3%72 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2825175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No31c99.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.353,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a37…5a89backed No25c96.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes56c94.51$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No32c93.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No18c90.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No43c89.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c87.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.474,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea55…558fbacked Yes54c85.58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes56c84.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3330849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes35c79.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.731,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes72c77.66$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.391,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes53c76.61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x547b…d0babacked Yes25c76.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.710653.8%57 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No40c74.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3616046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fe…91cfbacked No40c72.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes25c72.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1339346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe938…3941backed Yes59c70.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No46c68.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3888650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes69c67.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8710434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No41c66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes71c65.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.941,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No35c65.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd1…d33cbacked No32c65.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.751861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x336e…bcc3backed Yes23c64.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.824746.8%22 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No32c63.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.380957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4139…0a12backed Yes79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa581…b552backed Yes80c62.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.711968.4%13 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes63c62.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.936563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10f4…c2eabacked No36c61.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.965149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc66d…9fdfbacked No49c60.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No59c59.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes28c59.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.747,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked No77c55$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.257550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No33c54.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1844448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa63f…a744backed No22c53.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.882458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes48c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.042321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0428…b8adbacked No20c51.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No30c50.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1528456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed Yes72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1425766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.