Premier League · resolved market
Will Bournemouth beat Newcastle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71ffd996700822cb362101d376534e2d18c80274c254cd296728e8336a8ab65f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 31c | 1,196$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.98 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 36c | 1,032$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.75 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 70c | 738.56$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.57 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 58c | 449.65$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked No | 30c | 256.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 37c | 255.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 57c | 225$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…738fbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed No | 20c | 180$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 29c | 176.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Yes | 75c | 170$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed Yes | 68c | 144.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed No | 63c | 144.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…09b5backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Yes | 62c | 108$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…fe71backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 46c | 91.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked No | 70c | 75.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 60c | 71.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 70c | 54.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 27c | 49.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…5b3fbacked No | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd07e…f13bbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed No | 71c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2e…8b5dbacked No | 70c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…ed1fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bournemouth beat Newcastle?this page
- Will Bournemouth vs. Newcastle end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.