Premier League · resolved market
Will Bournemouth vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec4851549b61b5c454cce7f6f2a09ee0ee10d653f28777b843642363c3e32ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 25c | 962.1$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.58 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 29c | 798.21$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.21 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 71c | 624.14$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.14 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 73c | 520.78$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.44 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 12c | 334.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Yes | 65c | 311.66$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 26c | 271.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.12 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…812cbacked No | 49c | 204.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 71c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…738fbacked Yes | 50c | 199.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…fe71backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 21c | 54.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked No | 79c | 54.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked No | 75c | 42.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 71c | 40.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…1cecbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bournemouth vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Bournemouth beat Newcastle?No won
- Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.