MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720e76bb98b5597d8e8b48ec62f8d73652af651d8cc22ab10393fe6a57390b8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 4,871$2,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.87 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 37c | 3,249$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.05 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 1,621$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.88 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 1,565$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 40c | 1,391$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.26 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 517$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 490$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 477$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.43 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 369.48$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.92 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 359.91$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.57 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 239.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 209.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 201.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 87.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 78.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 66.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 66.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked San Francisco Giants | 48c | 62.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 60.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 49.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 38.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Colorado Rockies | 31c | 33.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 29.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 25.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 20.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.