MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c8c050fc30fe455d8659cea74d8a584e6e3b9b3371f02b6db8da2b1f99b25f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $387,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 56c | 372,972$208,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208,064.21 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 44c | 150,000$66,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,000 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 44c | 100,000$44,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,000 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 44,314$19,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,402.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 25,000$11,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,850 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 44c | 15,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,400 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 9,919$4,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,455.66 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 44c | 7,500$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 45c | 3,153$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.43 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 45c | 2,387$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.34 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 2,143$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.95 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,795$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 1,715$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.27 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,669$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 56c | 1,598$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.82 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 1,328$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.66 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 1,135$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.25 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 1,120$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.94 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 45c | 955.04$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.27 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 843.29$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 795$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 695.65$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 645.1$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 618.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.44 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 46c | 498$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.92 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d1…8d0ebacked Over | 48c | 417.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 55c | 354$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 347.62$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 45c | 337$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.35 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 45c | 300.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.39 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 45c | 281.35$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…accbbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 45c | 215.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 214$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.57 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 46c | 164.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 161.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 53c | 147.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Under | 55c | 134.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 57c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 45c | 108$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 45c | 96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 89.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 85.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Over | 47c | 79.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 45c | 73.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 45c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…1b5bbacked Over | 56c | 66.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 47c | 64.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Under | 55c | 64.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 30c | 63.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 45c | 55.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 55c | 54.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 54.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 44c | 45.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 40.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Over | 44c | 30.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 47c | 29.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…6215backed Under | 55c | 27.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…ddc7backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad77…d9c4backed Over | 48c | 26.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 48c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Under | 52c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Over | 55c | 18.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.