TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Xavier Musketeers vs. Butler Bulldogs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Butler Bulldogsof Xavier Musketeers, Butler Bulldogs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,072 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Xavier Musketeers24c6,421$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.55,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Xavier Musketeers40c4,857$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.641,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Butler Bulldogs60c4,399$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.6244549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Xavier Musketeers17c2,006$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.274,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Butler Bulldogs59c1,438$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5922,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Butler Bulldogs80c1,041$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.892,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Xavier Musketeers3c740.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.334,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Xavier Musketeers14c535.74$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.371157%8 W · 107 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Xavier Musketeers28c532.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Butler Bulldogs78c460.7$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.593,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Butler Bulldogs80c437.4$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4822157.9%128 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Xavier Musketeers37c405.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15093447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Xavier Musketeers15c376.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.177142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Butler Bulldogs78c354.94$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.851,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Xavier Musketeers6c319.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.571030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Xavier Musketeers40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.682,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Xavier Musketeers38c300$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11555532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3d0…6fc8backed Xavier Musketeers42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007754.5%42 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Xavier Musketeers38c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Xavier Musketeers11c199.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.525325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Butler Bulldogs78c199.81$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.461,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Xavier Musketeers11c169.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.34738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Butler Bulldogs62c161.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9935646.6%166 W · 190 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Xavier Musketeers18c159.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812245.1%55 W · 67 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Xavier Musketeers18c158.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.891,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Xavier Musketeers11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.781,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed Xavier Musketeers13c149.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Butler Bulldogs63c125.51$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.982,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe545…5bacbacked Xavier Musketeers13c125.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7510347.6%49 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Xavier Musketeers9c116.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1987047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Xavier Musketeers18c116.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9293247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Xavier Musketeers39c116.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.741,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfe…e92ebacked Xavier Musketeers15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Xavier Musketeers18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Butler Bulldogs60c96.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5612846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Xavier Musketeers12c91.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2157655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Butler Bulldogs76c84.31$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2370349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b4…f93bbacked Xavier Musketeers19c74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.073125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Xavier Musketeers40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Butler Bulldogs60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6749849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef3…df7fbacked Xavier Musketeers40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257319.2%14 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e1…f709backed Butler Bulldogs65c62.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Butler Bulldogs65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2164658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Xavier Musketeers18c58.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55427.8%15 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Xavier Musketeers23c49.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Butler Bulldogs62c48.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4143053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Xavier Musketeers37c46.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.271,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc4e…5ee6backed Butler Bulldogs63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.682369.6%16 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Butler Bulldogs71c37.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.862140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e2…3c77backed Butler Bulldogs59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.351978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+46%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Butler Bulldogs60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3399045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Butler Bulldogs80c32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.435852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Butler Bulldogs65c30.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6913565.9%89 W · 46 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Xavier Musketeers35c29.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.418557.8%107 W · 78 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Butler Bulldogs62c28.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7921651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Butler Bulldogs63c19.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3281453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.