Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723cf7aa3fe158fc05be2b78d717e1cc6da2a543a3674685fd15be747c524bcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 949.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 811$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 708.09$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 680.52$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.68 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 432.08$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 367.5$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 266.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 27c | 212.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 192.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 172.17$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 165.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 15c | 157.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 26c | 148.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 142.39$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 24c | 135.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 118.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 118.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 106.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 103.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 94.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed Yes | 20c | 93.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 88.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 74.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 72.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 75c | 72.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 70.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 67.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…8d89backed No | 75c | 64.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 78c | 61.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 22c | 60.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 56.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 27c | 53.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 50.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 25c | 46.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 42.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 24c | 42.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 28c | 40.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 27.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…d328backed No | 74c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 74c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 70c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.