Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30527e592f9ae7b02d99344997e691574c59ab93732cffdf6bac35d0e4cbbbc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,557$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 48c | 1,223$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.13 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 1,078$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 18c | 895.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 847.04$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 755.59$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 647.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 636.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 23c | 530.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 431.44$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 13c | 423.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 50c | 397.03$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.03 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 62c | 376.68$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.99 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 27c | 373.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 60c | 342.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 330.23$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 243.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.93 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 226.13$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 215.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 22c | 209.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 24c | 208.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 204.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 202.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 199.64$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 196.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 177.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 11c | 169.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 52c | 169.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 162$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 21c | 161.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 14c | 153.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 146.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 127.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 126.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 121.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 69c | 107.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked Yes | 20c | 100.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 67c | 97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 78c | 96.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 24c | 88.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 88.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 49c | 85.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 84.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 52c | 78.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 75.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 76c | 72.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 71.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 21c | 70.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 65.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…6732backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 64.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 56.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 56.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 23c | 55.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 49.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 39c | 47.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 46.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 27c | 42.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 43c | 39.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 38.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 41c | 37.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 36.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 36.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 76c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 73c | 26.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 75c | 23.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 67c | 23.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.