Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fd2a4345333138c8c403da9874d64a00fc1f4d98c2cde4b81779d02a4ef9303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 937.33$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 710.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 685.56$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 593.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.58 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 433.19$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 46c | 431.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 56c | 357.63$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 46c | 339.85$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.52 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 46c | 308.32$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.49 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 51c | 302.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 55c | 273.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.63 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 264.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 60c | 245.36$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 241.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 236$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 49c | 226.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 52c | 208.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 55c | 204.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 201.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 196.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 180.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 60c | 179.23$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 161$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 152.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 53c | 137.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 135.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 122.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 46c | 114.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 108.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 107.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 106.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 28c | 105.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…8d89backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 89.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 87.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 46c | 85.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 83.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…516cbacked Yes | 57c | 79.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 45c | 77.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 63c | 76.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 55c | 74.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 72.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 59c | 70.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…7ce9backed Yes | 66c | 69.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 35c | 67.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 66.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 49c | 66.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 63.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 46c | 63.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 38c | 60.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 60.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 56.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 56.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 54.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 53c | 52.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 51.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 49.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 49c | 49.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…67bebacked Yes | 62c | 48.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 62c | 46.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 43c | 43.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed Yes | 49c | 41.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 49c | 41.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 63c | 36.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 34.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 34.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 55c | 34.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 39c | 31.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 59c | 31.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 30.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 49c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 30.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 47c | 29.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 51c | 29.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 29.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 42c | 29.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 45c | 28.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 70c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.