Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x730d360ffccd055eb72ba7fc85b7191e5f722e7474175dce7a6199b72e60f7a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 15c | 5,121$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.43 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Down | 24c | 3,269$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 26c | 3,148$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.97 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 7c | 2,925$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.88 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 15c | 2,046$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.01 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 17c | 2,000$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 1c | 1,989$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed Up | 74c | 1,850$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 32c | 1,693$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.88 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 73c | 1,124$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.22 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…1ca6backed Down | 10c | 895.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 10c | 770$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 10c | 432.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Up | 76c | 360.11$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Down | 35c | 250.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 47c | 206.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Down | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked Down | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 14c | 195.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Down | 17c | 173.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…3011backed Down | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Down | 7c | 153.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 15c | 141.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9e…ee7ebacked Up | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Up | 78c | 117.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed Down | 19c | 102.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…1369backed Down | 16c | 63.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…8022backed Down | 35c | 43.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Down | 41c | 39.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Down | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.