La Liga · resolved market
Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7317feb2806c96655fc68ea8d4173e9e80a3748803893d6889c855afa716991e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,050 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Over | 45c | 3,354$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 2,869$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.34 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 10c | 999.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 44c | 650$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 592.81$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.7 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 44c | 567$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…c249backed Over | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 350.27$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 347.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 274.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 22c | 228.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 57c | 215.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 58c | 121.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 21c | 115.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…8434backed Over | 44c | 113.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 76c | 104.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 23c | 58.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Under | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 45.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 45c | 40.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…c755backed Under | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Under | 79c | 37.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Under | 70c | 24.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…25e4backed Under | 75c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5)Sevilla FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.