NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733a14e543e782a085aa930b681099a2e546ac92d957b3a70bfbbd893070d411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 70c | 1,424$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.94 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Over | 53c | 953.49$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.14 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Over | 51c | 946.55$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.95 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 909.64$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.08 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 771.13$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 454.84$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 444.62$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.71 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 444.44$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 9c | 248.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 43c | 232.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2908…789abacked Over | 57c | 211.81$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Under | 5c | 193.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 47c | 121.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 46c | 95.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 40c | 51.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 46.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…dc3cbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Under | 40c | 36.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 35.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 34.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…b1e3backed Under | 49c | 27.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…5af8backed Over | 52c | 27.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d92…7085backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…f291backed Over | 52c | 26.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…e68fbacked Under | 49c | 26.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…9c59backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 42c | 23.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5this page
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Hornets vs. BullsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Miles Bridges: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.