NBA · resolved market
Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700d20fc4ccefa592e82454da77f91fb561189cfa1deb44d592230154be75563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 321.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1df1…aa1ebacked Yes | 37c | 271.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 68c | 195.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…4084backed Yes | 32c | 107.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 32c | 100.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Yes | 34c | 53.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 69c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5this page
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Hornets vs. BullsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Miles Bridges: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.