Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7346304d590354003a1871a968e09f7326d7fcd1ce589508f87a575705634f2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,259$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 12c | 1,878$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 1,328$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.1 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 64c | 779.85$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.9 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 68c | 577.67$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.87 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 473.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 5c | 434.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 65c | 402.56$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 42c | 364.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 6c | 341.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 307.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 295.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 68c | 291.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…ae5bbacked Yes | 12c | 290.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 8c | 272.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 79c | 268.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 21c | 263.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 257.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…53f6backed No | 80c | 244.84$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 235.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 235.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 211.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 5c | 209.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 58c | 199.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 9c | 199.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 194.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 10c | 192.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…14f9backed Yes | 19c | 178.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 34c | 166.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…2982backed No | 67c | 165.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 61c | 162.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 156.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 61c | 155.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 64c | 149.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 32c | 143.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…237cbacked Yes | 33c | 141.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 139.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…6a25backed Yes | 37c | 137.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 42c | 120.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 77c | 119.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 14c | 117.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 67c | 114.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 66c | 110.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 102$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 33c | 100.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…8769backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…d952backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 46c | 97.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 14c | 89.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 54c | 86.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 38c | 84.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 37c | 77.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 37c | 75.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…316dbacked Yes | 38c | 73.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 33c | 72.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 69c | 71.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 74c | 70.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 56c | 68.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…4e2bbacked Yes | 15c | 68.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 67.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 39c | 59.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 29c | 59.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 42c | 52.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 53c | 51.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…d774backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 45c | 49.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 29c | 49.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 70c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 38c | 49.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 68c | 46.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.