Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbf5f47117f8e544ea9a0cfe69062f9be0fe7adf11062908974e9759b31d25c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 17c | 2,897$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 671.76$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.28 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 577.22$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.66 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 544.89$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.74 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 38c | 487.74$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.41 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 47c | 383.81$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 41c | 363.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.49 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 35c | 356.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.87 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 11c | 333.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 41c | 333$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 68c | 318.9$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 70c | 283.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 69c | 279.12$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 270.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 7c | 213.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 32c | 212.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 32c | 209.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 7c | 201.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 30c | 199.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 53c | 178.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 165.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 158.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 53c | 156.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 34c | 143.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 143.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 65c | 134.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 36c | 131.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 24c | 124.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 31c | 120.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 34c | 99.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 39c | 98.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 39c | 98.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 39c | 97.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 61c | 95.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 79c | 93.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 89.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 59c | 85.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 75.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 36c | 75.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 75.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…64a9backed Yes | 70c | 70.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 70.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 41c | 70.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 46c | 68.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed No | 66c | 62.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 35c | 61.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 60c | 60.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 46c | 59.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 35c | 57.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…0b7ebacked No | 28c | 57.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed Yes | 33c | 54.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 50.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…3697backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 40c | 49.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 44c | 49.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 33c | 48.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 29c | 47.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 67c | 46.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 33c | 45.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 36c | 44.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 43c | 41.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 27c | 41.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 36c | 41.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 39.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 42c | 38.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 44c | 34.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…1a52backed No | 66c | 34.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 34.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 42c | 33.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…65a1backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ed…74cbbacked Yes | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…8dbbbacked No | 66c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 77c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…d552backed No | 62c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 31.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 58c | 31.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 38c | 30.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…5c22backed Yes | 34c | 30.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed Yes | 65c | 29.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 38c | 28.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 26.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.