Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf66dea54360fa035b6ebccfe99209ee3a394d24848dcc62393b338a547e898e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 1c | 6,571$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 2,563$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 14c | 1,199$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 7c | 1,170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 10c | 899.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 12c | 795.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 11c | 792.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 16c | 787.22$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 28c | 779.58$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8e…1438backed Yes | 17c | 499.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 20c | 465.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 7c | 435.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 15c | 389.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 8c | 350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 21c | 347.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…c73fbacked Yes | 12c | 346.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 13c | 340.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 18c | 332.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 11c | 299.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 293.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 7c | 291.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 14c | 281.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 14c | 277.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 267.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 254.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 247.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 9c | 232.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 73c | 220.96$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 205.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 16c | 202.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 28c | 174.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 159.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…b145backed No | 66c | 148.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 123.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 123.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 19c | 106.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 91.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 29c | 89.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…5130backed No | 78c | 87.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 76cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 12c | 86.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 15c | 77.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 75c | 72.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 19c | 72.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 69.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 79c | 50.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…039fbacked Yes | 28c | 50.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 77c | 49.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 77c | 48.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 40.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…582dbacked No | 72c | 31.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 65c | 27.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 79c | 22.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.