Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $80 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x734fe319cbf3739902ae875ac503603373c860a8002cc2b9f0e519254ed3c34e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 1,058$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed No | 27c | 628.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.73 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 26c | 499.2$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 41c | 472.03$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 72c | 456.6$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 73c | 438.59$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 399.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 9c | 299.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 256.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 34c | 147.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 75c | 133.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed No | 37c | 108.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a4…a548backed No | 36c | 55.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…e7c6backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 46.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $80 February 9-15?this page
- Will Solana dip to $20 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $30 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $40 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $50 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana reach $100 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana reach $110 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana reach $120 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana reach $130 February 9-15?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.