MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73544ba3111c5acab0582859e7549f21870fd336d0549dd66e706807f5bb312a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Soxof Twins, Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Red Sox | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Twins | 50c | 13,774$6,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,887 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…0dcebacked Twins | 50c | 5,125$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Twins | 49c | 3,269$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.73 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 46c | 2,262$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.22 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Red Sox | 56c | 2,187$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.3 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox | 56c | 2,106$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.09 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Twins | 49c | 2,000$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.92 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Red Sox | 51c | 1,187$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.67 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Twins | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Red Sox | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4874…7123backed Red Sox | 50c | 956$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…49a2backed Twins | 50c | 956$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…c079backed Twins | 50c | 938$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…551abacked Red Sox | 50c | 938$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…4ab1backed Red Sox | 50c | 876$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…2b46backed Twins | 50c | 876$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Sox | 51c | 834.41$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.92 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Red Sox | 51c | 782$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.18 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Twins | 50c | 742$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…6b5abacked Red Sox | 50c | 742$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Twins | 49c | 700$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.75 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Twins | 46c | 691.67$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.91 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Red Sox | 66c | 578.51$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.02 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Red Sox | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Red Sox | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox | 50c | 396.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Twins | 43c | 300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Twins | 46c | 299.04$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…7a3bbacked Red Sox | 51c | 264.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.71 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Twins | 50c | 236$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Twins | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Red Sox | 52c | 107.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Twins | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Twins | 51c | 98.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Red Sox | 49c | 96.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Twins | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Twins | 46c | 72.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Twins | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Sox | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Red Sox | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…1099backed Red Sox | 51c | 27.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.