NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Steelers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736c0ea973f90a1f0649bd809cac4f3719d98ab9ea65b621ecc568ddb4c8cd56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Dolphins, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Dolphins | 40c | 3,087$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.8 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…ca67backed Steelers | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Steelers | 62c | 2,422$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.54 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Dolphins | 40c | 1,219$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.8 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Dolphins | 37c | 924.38$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.78 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Steelers | 61c | 823.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.12 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Dolphins | 40c | 818.5$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.4 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Dolphins | 41c | 818.5$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.59 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Steelers | 55c | 790.82$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.96 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Dolphins | 45c | 431.83$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Dolphins | 40c | 316.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Steelers | 49c | 129.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Steelers | 59c | 111$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbc…7032backed Dolphins | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6865…64c6backed Steelers | 61c | 95.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dolphins | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Dolphins | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Dolphins | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Steelers | 50c | 44.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Steelers | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Dolphins | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Dolphins | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Steelers | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…30f3backed Steelers | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…0471backed Steelers | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Steelers | 53c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Steelers won
- Dolphins vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 29.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 30.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 31.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Steelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.