NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3532ef0760b522eff9163f3a0044d92970ba43176eb1a49ad18bb7d0dd9614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8224…e28abacked Under | 52c | 5,001$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.98 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,547$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.72 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Under | 52c | 2,462$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.53 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 51c | 969$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.81 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 708.26$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.84 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Over | 46c | 704$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.84 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Under | 52c | 511.54$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.54 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 242.64$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Under | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Under | 54c | 192.59$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Under | 53c | 189.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 150.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 55c | 105.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Over | 49c | 89.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 66 | 7.6%5 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Under | 55c | 36.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…0a99backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Under | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Steelers won
- Dolphins vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 29.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 30.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 31.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Steelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.