NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777f3b90fe3ef7944ec01e834ace53a9c873f3aeb26a3c39ce4800fbf8d5e981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Over | 54c | 20,179$10,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,350.44 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 10,176$4,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,569.47 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 55c | 10,031$5,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.67 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 9,206$4,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,337.62 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Under | 44c | 7,208$3,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,195.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Over | 55c | 3,199$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.58 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 10c | 2,547$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.74 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 56c | 2,143$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.86 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.49 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,318$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.43 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.73 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.83 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 44c | 772.43$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 56c | 750$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 10c | 610$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 514.68$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.5 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Over | 54c | 464.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.79 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Under | 46c | 456.52$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 46c | 434$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 46c | 355.26$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 46c | 197.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 46c | 173$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 46c | 173$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 46c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked Under | 45c | 137.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 46c | 117$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 46c | 117$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 44c | 113.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Under | 45c | 113.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Under | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf171…3be5backed Under | 46c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 44c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…38c7backed Under | 59c | 25.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5this page
- 1H Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Steelers won
- Dolphins vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 29.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 30.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 31.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Steelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.