Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736c9214a674d3dd878e06027dc9dcd4d1b101555756a95579f6895a9b3cb1df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 66c | 1,370$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.31 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 54c | 367.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 289.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 285.28$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 210$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 45c | 190.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 178$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 156.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked No | 64c | 155.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 143.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 140.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 128.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 58c | 123.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 51c | 121.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 44c | 114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 41c | 107.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 36c | 83.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 73.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 58c | 69.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 51c | 64.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 39c | 60.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 57.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 46c | 57.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 56.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 19c | 54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 55c | 52.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 51.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 51.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 46.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 44.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 47c | 42.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 62c | 42.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 53c | 41.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…8c1fbacked No | 55c | 40.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 47c | 38.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…7d49backed No | 43c | 38.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 50c | 38.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 37.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…13d2backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 45c | 35.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 48c | 34.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e5…fe83backed No | 49c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…1369backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 61c | 29.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 27.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 26.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 44c | 23.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 21.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 57c | 20.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked Yes | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.