Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f859276c2201f19f007149124c1b66ce44e1fd8a6faeb667671074c6f6f2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 16c | 650.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 33c | 507.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 435.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 75c | 432.12$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 75c | 368.37$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 355.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 305.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 295.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 26c | 228.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 204.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 162$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 158.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 153.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 149.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 24c | 130.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 122$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 107$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 106$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 89.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 72.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 26c | 71.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 66.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 62.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 61.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed No | 73c | 61.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 60.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 58.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…eec0backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 22c | 49.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 43.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 34c | 41.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 72c | 41.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 26c | 41.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 27c | 40.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 74c | 35.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked No | 71c | 35.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 74c | 32.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 31.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 26.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 23.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 74c | 22.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 76c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 21.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 71c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 72c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.