Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x442e0cdb1a2f82e6dc248006de9a84e18f5182c45277b79ded9e44030625f238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 4c | 852$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 638.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.09 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 619.5$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 20c | 585.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.3 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 26c | 419.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 9c | 315.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.29 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 18c | 279.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.66 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 272.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.62 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 264.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.45 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 260.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 17c | 232.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.65 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 207.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 190.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 185.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 178$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 164.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 13c | 156.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 155.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 15c | 148.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 136.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 134.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 134.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 132.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 131.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 27c | 129.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 126.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes | 24c | 113$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 112.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 110.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 108.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked Yes | 17c | 100.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…e184backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 18c | 94.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 30c | 92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 78c | 89.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 84.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 15c | 81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…d7a3backed No | 63c | 80.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 79.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 70.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 20c | 67.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…2567backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 59.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e2…6e0cbacked Yes | 22c | 57.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 28c | 57.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 56.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 24c | 55.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 48.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 42.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 77c | 41.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 36.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45e…baf4backed No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 29.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 28.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 27.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 26.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 23.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 52c | 21.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 73c | 19.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…6bcebacked No | 78c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 15.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 14.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed No | 80c | 12.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.