South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738503f8cda0a17c44aa1f5111dab9d52709b591735a848b8c2c426c3ea924bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 28c | 8,871$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.96 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 4,592$3,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.36 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 71c | 2,256$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.29 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 35c | 1,860$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.98 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 71c | 561.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 71c | 281.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Under | 71c | 260.76$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 71c | 196.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 72c | 170.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 73c | 147$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 71c | 138.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Under | 72c | 111.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 68c | 72.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 69.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1082…48d3backed Under | 70c | 68.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Under | 71c | 61.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Under | 79c | 52.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 71c | 50.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Under | 65c | 46.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 69c | 43.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 78c | 42.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 65c | 36.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 73c | 29.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Under | 71c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Under | 71c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 70c | 23.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…b93bbacked Under | 68c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 77c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: Mirassol FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.