South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc227ccc6bdd8f9fdce03ecd6db39d0ff922f07db9b38d1f33ac722b4800c7a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 21c | 3,712$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.01 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 2,401$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.12 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 65c | 2,002$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.42 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 1,019$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…f598backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 906.26$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.85 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Over | 27c | 548.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 31c | 455$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 410.34$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.77 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 16c | 400$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 5c | 365.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 22c | 341.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 40c | 307.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 5c | 289.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Under | 46c | 263.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 27c | 248.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 196.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 73c | 133.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…20d5backed Over | 66c | 128.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 31c | 118.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 73c | 104.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 19c | 97.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 73c | 79.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 74.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 27c | 70.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Under | 49c | 61.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 71c | 61.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 26c | 60.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…999abacked Over | 69c | 60.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 49c | 54.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 51.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 45.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 79c | 34.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 79c | 30.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 80c | 23.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 67c | 22.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 78c | 20.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 62c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: Mirassol FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.