Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73922488b3167198403f0ea53624bbbe7fc2685e211f46b1e850602b31fa0cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 249.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 210.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 40c | 202.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 31c | 201.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 61c | 156.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 151.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 37c | 150.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…e13ebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 30c | 144.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 144.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 62c | 130.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 109.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 97.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 29c | 96.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 32c | 91.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 61.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 58.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 55.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 75c | 53.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 23c | 51.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 35c | 50.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 40c | 45.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 77c | 39.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 37.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 30c | 34.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 32.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 30.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 27.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 56c | 25.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 56c | 25.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…01b0backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 23.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 20.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 55c | 20.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 19.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.