Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcddef8e71f8a7af766be869c3eea6840e0d74ca64743ef20bc879848744cf3f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 966.96$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…d70cbacked No | 59c | 615.36$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 531.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 69c | 460$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 78c | 302.62$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 26c | 197$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 42c | 191.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 180.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 180.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…d33cbacked No | 60c | 151.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 142.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 110.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 56c | 109.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 29c | 102.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 78.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 77.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 71.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 71.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 59c | 68.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 37c | 67.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 60c | 67.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 62c | 64.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked No | 73c | 60.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 56.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 57c | 51.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 39c | 50.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 23c | 50.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2b9abacked No | 57c | 44.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 43.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 42.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 41.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 61c | 40.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 27.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 26.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed No | 58c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 21.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 65c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…2947backed No | 61c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.