MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a0587c8910ef516a9bb24b43f8dcce6c9ba67b3d002ba7c2939a9a8bda0b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed No | 72c | 4,963$3,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.89 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 20c | 1,423$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 28c | 1,380$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,030$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.14 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 43c | 695$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.85 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Yes | 46c | 223.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 211.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 74c | 134.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 126.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 44c | 94.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 18c | 75.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…5e98backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…3fcdbacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked No | 58c | 52.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 43c | 46.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 54c | 30.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…736dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…862abacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…766dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.