MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23877f84b5f9f289221bb5f13ae56e9adac721ffc06ee772b6e5b69841aff09c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 12,574$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,051.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 12,440$8,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,743.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 5,750$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.86 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…d417backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 4,865$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 4,427$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 4,166$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.69 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 956.2$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 658.98$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.64 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 617.57$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.35 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 390$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 348.47$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 302$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 282.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 242.91$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 18c | 230$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 217.57$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 186.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 177$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 157.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 152.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a71…a47ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 115.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 93.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 76.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 73.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 66.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0908…37b4backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 62.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…a760backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 59.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 39.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 35.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 31.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 30.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…837abacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 20.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.