MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8098b8672c53b35de991e5f8d90d2f44d9f9db5b422d6b00434e67a17a327766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 11,960$6,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,740.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 11,439$6,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,034.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 9,146$4,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,353.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 49c | 8,593$4,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.68 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 8,519$3,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Over | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 58c | 2,048$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.16 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.82 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 42c | 1,156$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.85 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.35 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Under | 53c | 872.55$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 783.21$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 778.64$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.18 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 705.98$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Under | 53c | 630.19$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 52c | 628.45$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.19 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 51c | 507.56$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.42 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 59c | 471.41$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 395.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 50c | 389.04$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.52 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Over | 42c | 383$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…66dbbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 292$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Over | 44c | 253.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 51c | 248.63$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 51c | 218.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 199.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 56c | 150.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 54c | 122.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 114.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 84.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 57c | 84.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 51c | 83.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…4cc2backed Under | 53c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Over | 50c | 68.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Under | 53c | 67.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…a781backed Under | 51c | 65.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Over | 55c | 60.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 52c | 58.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 44c | 55.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 58c | 52.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 36c | 45.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 55c | 43.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73fa…f396backed Under | 53c | 41.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Under | 51c | 40.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 42c | 38.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 58c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 55c | 36.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 36.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 48c | 28.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 48c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 44c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 48c | 23.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.