Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d8ddafe746526226a128ad8bfc33cba14715d063015729cad6429c045e578a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,761$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked No | 1c | 1,554$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 42c | 856.96$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 61c | 496.61$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 453.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 25c | 440.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 64c | 398.23$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.64 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…aa8abacked No | 6c | 378$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 59c | 324.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 303.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 279.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 58c | 207.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 28c | 203.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 62c | 186.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 178.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 64c | 165.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 55c | 159.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 40c | 150.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 63c | 143.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 73c | 136.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 120.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 60c | 109.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 59c | 103.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 41c | 100.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 61c | 99.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 61c | 97.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 94.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 41c | 91.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 58c | 86.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 79c | 83.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 79c | 82.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 35c | 80.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 79.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 63c | 78.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 67c | 77.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 63.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 65c | 58.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 33c | 57.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 63c | 57.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 65c | 52.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 43c | 52.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 65c | 52.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 48.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 39c | 48.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 63c | 45.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…5bd0backed No | 59c | 43.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 48c | 41.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 40.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…57e5backed No | 69c | 39.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…2567backed Yes | 52c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 61c | 37.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 42c | 37.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 36.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 41c | 36.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 35.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 37c | 32.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 40c | 31.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 77c | 31.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8a…827abacked Yes | 40c | 31.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 60c | 30.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 41c | 29.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 28.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…604cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 44c | 23.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 47c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…69aabacked No | 67c | 17.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 66c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.