Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0916d57f354841b1c77f107eaf8dcd26ccca44c354e38ae0697d457e1fed8224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf95…42c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,063$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 55c | 367.49$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 325.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 278.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 47c | 272.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 35c | 264.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 262.84$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 188.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 146.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 56c | 120.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 115.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed Yes | 42c | 114.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 101.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 69c | 98.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 92.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 85.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 85.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 70.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 41c | 68.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 65c | 65.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 26c | 64.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 33c | 60.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed Yes | 59c | 51.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed No | 75c | 45.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 42.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 41c | 42.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 42.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 56c | 41.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 44c | 40.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 29c | 39.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 38.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…c653backed Yes | 59c | 35.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5c…f5f6backed Yes | 35c | 34.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 64c | 32.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 66c | 29.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 59c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 51c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 48c | 21.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0201backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.