Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e1ee0fd4180cd323b8e35a2343a6bde56afc768d75806c424cc048eab8d9b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,609$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,258$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 1c | 1,459$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 76c | 1,380$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.39 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 477.84$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 28c | 399.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 370.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 313.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 25c | 205.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…bb12backed Yes | 32c | 205$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 169.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 166.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 35c | 164.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 33c | 156.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 9c | 153.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 136$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 127$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 23c | 119.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 114.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 105.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 65c | 103.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 102.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 22c | 100.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 24c | 84.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 79.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 72.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 57c | 63.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 61.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 60.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 59.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 58.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 45.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 43.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 39.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes | 36c | 38.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 36.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 71c | 35.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 34c | 32.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 35c | 32.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 77c | 17.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 15.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.