Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56576602a69399f7ef5988c7df0062123e0e588348f06b038aaadaa29f2e8ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 489.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 457.14$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.67 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 24c | 354.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 24c | 332.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 8c | 323.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 272.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 265.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.55 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 263.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 75c | 234.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 34c | 212.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 25c | 207.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.03 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 72c | 179.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 55c | 152.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 135.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 127$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 120.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 117.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 111.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 21c | 106.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 60c | 100.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes | 43c | 100.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 78c | 99.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 68c | 97.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 35c | 95.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 33c | 87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 43c | 85.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 19c | 77.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 47c | 72.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 66c | 72.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 70.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 20c | 66.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 76c | 64.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 60.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 59.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 35c | 57.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 54.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 25c | 51.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 46.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 43.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 32.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 76c | 29.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 25.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 49c | 22.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…fababacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed No | 65c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 18.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 75c | 13.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.