Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e5df583a5d1de8dc822543fc2aa0cb4e305f9e7038e5292736527f7c2ef77b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,298 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,310$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 2,973$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…d09dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,752$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 1,387$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d1…f0f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 843.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 818$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 3c | 671.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 443.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 12c | 398$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 7c | 349$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 10c | 334.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 320.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 7c | 304.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 6c | 300.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 290.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 10c | 279.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 4c | 270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 5c | 266.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 8c | 249.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 229.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 7c | 213.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 6c | 208.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…b13bbacked Yes | 6c | 207.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 20c | 206.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…45acbacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 199.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes | 23c | 190.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 160.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 9c | 157.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 146.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 13c | 145.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 15c | 99.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 17c | 99.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 71c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.