Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb476f200f56069bf21f44f4bf339a41ef4f12525f466763b358b7db69766351d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,388 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,772$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,455$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…6cd2backed Yes | 4c | 2,255$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e41dbacked No | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,440$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.35 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…19f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,367$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bed…720dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,119$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba7…3ad3backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 19c | 998.26$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.12 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 987.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 950$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 9c | 870.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 805.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 17c | 777.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 713.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b7…766abacked Yes | 35c | 711.72$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 535.68$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.87 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 527.92$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…100dbacked Yes | 9c | 465.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 424.46$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 379.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 3c | 368$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 350$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed Yes | 45c | 332.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…6d4bbacked Yes | 49c | 319.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 308.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…5119backed Yes | 56c | 294.75$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 45c | 289.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 23c | 270.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 264.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 249.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 7c | 249.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde2…fbf1backed Yes | 37c | 236.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 32c | 207.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 6c | 190.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 13c | 189.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 175.06$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 166.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…7763backed Yes | 44c | 153.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 152.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 66c | 151.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 39c | 140.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 30c | 135.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 39c | 134.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 38c | 131.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 131.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…1f39backed Yes | 38c | 129.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 129.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…1708backed Yes | 39c | 126.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 20c | 123.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 18c | 117.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 117.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed Yes | 48c | 103.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 92.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…735fbacked Yes | 17c | 88.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…d97ebacked Yes | 14c | 88.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 47c | 88.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 13c | 84.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Yes | 35c | 84.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes | 25c | 82.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 61c | 81.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea7…9708backed Yes | 20c | 80.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 46c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 18c | 78.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 77.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 52c | 76.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 76.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 75.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 20c | 71.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 73c | 71.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 52c | 64.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 31c | 64.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…6feebacked Yes | 24c | 60.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 21c | 58.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6137backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 50.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 43c | 50.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…1c9dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9641…5385backed Yes | 46c | 43.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…e39cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 42.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…c9f0backed Yes | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 55c | 36.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes | 43c | 35.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…92acbacked No | 56c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 43c | 34.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.