Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b20cd06a3275510979c00670e7a702516523a5d69c8426af67ab7353fb78b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,731 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 0c | 6,740$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 3c | 1,953$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36d…3654backed No | 1c | 1,456$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 31c | 1,434$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.07 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 16c | 1,032$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 987.96$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 685.89$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…bb8abacked No | 3c | 607.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 575.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 36c | 525.11$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.45 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 514.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 488.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 21c | 397.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.35 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 385$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 31c | 349$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.13 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 308.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 290.39$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 265.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 45c | 256.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 78c | 255.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 206$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 196.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 194.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 27c | 192.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 186.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 181.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 56c | 178.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 23c | 175.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…2fecbacked No | 12c | 166$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 32c | 155.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 142.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 130.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 130$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 122.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 59c | 119.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 68c | 117.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 114.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 67c | 111.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 24c | 108.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 108.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 30c | 96.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 33c | 95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 87.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 46c | 86.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 24c | 82.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 76c | 82.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 82.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 67c | 79.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed No | 24c | 77.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 65.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 69c | 63.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 64c | 62.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ae34backed Yes | 18c | 58.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 21c | 54.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes | 49c | 51.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 23c | 45.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6137backed Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 64c | 41.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…a0e4backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 36c | 36.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…6b47backed No | 66c | 35.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…b542backed No | 72c | 33.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +539.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…46a1backed No | 60c | 31.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed Yes | 48c | 31.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…5d4dbacked Yes | 39c | 28.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…7763backed No | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…5b01backed Yes | 49c | 27.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 63c | 26.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 23.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 23.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 61c | 19.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.