TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,731 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53fe…5b95backed No0c6,740$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.241421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No3c1,953$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2743021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa36d…3654backed No1c1,456$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes31c1,434$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.0741845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No16c1,032$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9488628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c987.96$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.716,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c685.89$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.5591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…bb8abacked No3c607.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No9c575.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes36c525.11$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.451,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c514.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.752,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2824149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No7c488.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7534617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes21c397.91$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.355228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c385$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.724,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes31c349$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.1323231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No5c308.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6918316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No6c299.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c290.39$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.483,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c265.66$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.751,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes45c256.49$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.36033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e8f…5613backed Yes78c255.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.551931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No76c206$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No61c196.31$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c194.15$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.051,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes27c192.77$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c186.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.537,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No74c181.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1741070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed No56c178.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes23c175.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.116520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe719…2fecbacked No12c166$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-70.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes32c155.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9411128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No60c142.62$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.861,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No35c130.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.867,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes35c130$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c122.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes59c119.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.16737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No68c117.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.521,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c114.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No67c111.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes24c108.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8319426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No62c108.09$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.131,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.996939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.994520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes30c96.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8115626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes33c95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes27c90$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9622023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes17c90$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes21c87.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.712,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33b6…597bbacked No46c86.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.69267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes24c82.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.692642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes76c82.33$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.389053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No53c82.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes67c79.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.641,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed0f…b307backed No24c77.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.562729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No62c77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes31c65.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0855942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes21c65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes26c65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.15129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed Yes69c63.17$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.377552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes44c63$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2810562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No64c62.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8714071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…ae34backed Yes18c58.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+210.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes25c55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.31,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes21c54.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.812360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes49c51.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.361241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ca…d385backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.092454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.712735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.533243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes32c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9925549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes23c45.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.021729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6137backed Yes55c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes24c42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2035…0c4ebacked No64c41.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.73658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dfa…a0e4backed No39c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes36c36.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2717144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9711…6b47backed No66c35.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58b5…b542backed No72c33.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+539.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c31.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3922…46a1backed No60c31.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb070…5726backed Yes48c31.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.18944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3417433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x550c…1e1abacked No70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203174.2%23 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a34…5d4dbacked Yes39c28.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-57.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x721b…7763backed No72c27.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6e…5b01backed Yes49c27.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes63c26.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7554037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes78c25.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.584465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c14…35b8backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204955.1%27 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes63c23.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.821,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No80c23.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6452245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes57c22.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No78c20.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9329558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes61c19.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.742157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.