TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,836

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,836 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe9cc…102abacked Yes0c5,031$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes7c4,461$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.852,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes32c1,386$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.641845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No63c1,334$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.817347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes32c1,105$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.934,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes10c673.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.232,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes24c650.5$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9616738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c582$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.736,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No77c573.6$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6861760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No72c567.07$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1367158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c566.58$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c488.25$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.293,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No72c387.44$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c381.4$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes23c349$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7823231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes14c339.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2888628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c316.29$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c269.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.661,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes34c266.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.26445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No74c262.17$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.191,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes22c239.81$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.133732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c194.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c167.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.627,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes23c164.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes17c153.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6432818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5115626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7771…c8febacked Yes32c140.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes20c132.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.541,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed No76c131.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.542334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x871c…ccebbacked Yes29c130$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed No80c127.81$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8111546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes23c119.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.751,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb7…a64dbacked Yes34c119$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed Yes26c114.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2510335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No66c113.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6441070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes28c113.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.476033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No69c110.57$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3431868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes33c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.793441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes29c109$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6119426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No69c108.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes21c103.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9147…a532backed Yes32c102$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2726236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes30c99.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.836939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3906…f74bbacked Yes38c99.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed Yes36c98.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes20c98.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6724414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes27c96.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7622023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No77c94.47$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.677,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes18c91.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4433726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes33c91.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.86737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes45c88.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes26c87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.853,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes18c85.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3854037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…45acbacked Yes24c75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes22c70.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes19c65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.355129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882e…40b4backed No68c65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No72c60.79$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes34c56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0449750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes23c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No64c51.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4914071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed No63c51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.976137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.948834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe5…d852backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd0…994bbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ca…d385backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes23c48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No62c47.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2315136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c46.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e3…8f56backed No71c46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099c…18e8backed Yes27c44.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.074818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf548…1702backed No68c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes29c41.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…abcebacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.633243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c39.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes28c36.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1717144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0416…616cbacked Yes28c35.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105971.2%42 W · 17 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2d5…d87abacked No78c34.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d4…0a37backed Yes39c33.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f7c…b686backed No68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f0…be4ebacked No68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…f9c1backed No71c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb070…5726backed No63c31.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.727648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1779…2305backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No63c28.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6743021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.