Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x147f4dd8682746a6202418dcc62cd3eeabba4bff83b56a5477892f18a13adfcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 0c | 5,031$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,461$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 32c | 1,386$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.6 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 63c | 1,334$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.81 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 1,105$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 673.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 24c | 650.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 582$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 573.6$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 567.07$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 566.58$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 488.25$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 387.44$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 381.4$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 23c | 349$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 339.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 316.29$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 269.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 34c | 266.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 262.17$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 22c | 239.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 194.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 167.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 23c | 164.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 17c | 153.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…c8febacked Yes | 32c | 140.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 132.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 76c | 131.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…ccebbacked Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 80c | 127.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 119.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…a64dbacked Yes | 34c | 119$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 26c | 114.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 28c | 113.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 110.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 29c | 109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 69c | 108.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 21c | 103.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…a532backed Yes | 32c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 38c | 99.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 36c | 98.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 20c | 98.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 27c | 96.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 94.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 18c | 91.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 33c | 91.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 45c | 88.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 18c | 85.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…45acbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 22c | 70.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…40b4backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 72c | 60.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 64c | 51.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…994bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 62c | 47.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 46.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…8f56backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 27c | 44.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…1702backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 29c | 41.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…abcebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 39.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 28c | 36.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 28c | 35.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked No | 78c | 34.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 39c | 33.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7c…b686backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f0…be4ebacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…f9c1backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed No | 63c | 31.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1779…2305backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 63c | 28.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.