TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karachi Kingsof Quetta Gladiators, Karachi Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$198,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,025 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef51…c0d3backed Karachi Kings77c22,351$17,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,145.416349.7%81 W · 82 L+10.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Quetta Gladiators55c19,466$10,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,735.6413151.9%68 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3d…4841backed Quetta Gladiators51c13,099$6,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,735.7915335.3%54 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…f0ffbacked Karachi Kings40c12,370$4,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,422.327447.3%35 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ed…cfe3backed Karachi Kings80c7,633$6,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.254168.3%28 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Karachi Kings47c6,595$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510.4310863.9%69 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe867…fdbdbacked Quetta Gladiators46c6,467$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e02…d70abacked Quetta Gladiators25c6,332$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.4236445.6%166 W · 198 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76a0…4b1abacked Quetta Gladiators45c6,157$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a2b…7c68backed Quetta Gladiators45c6,087$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2c…3ab1backed Karachi Kings55c4,668$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde44…f67abacked Karachi Kings55c4,482$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…04f6backed Karachi Kings54c3,696$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Karachi Kings35c3,198$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.7221540.9%88 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412e…4a0fbacked Karachi Kings55c3,097$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4641…672bbacked Karachi Kings54c2,771$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d1…7d7dbacked Karachi Kings49c2,319$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.1432846.3%152 W · 176 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Quetta Gladiators66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32014546.2%67 W · 78 L+16.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x327a…2381backed Karachi Kings11c2,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,78012122.3%27 W · 94 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb1…9a6bbacked Quetta Gladiators49c1,765$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.264052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Quetta Gladiators2c1,571$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.421717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Karachi Kings43c1,425$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.6526130.7%80 W · 181 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Karachi Kings44c1,388$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.281838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Quetta Gladiators31c1,171$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.5131543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240d…1ff2backed Quetta Gladiators69c1,113$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.972634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa6…d3c2backed Karachi Kings70c932.57$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.576949.3%34 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0646…ad17backed Quetta Gladiators3c846.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0832415.7%51 W · 273 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+75.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Quetta Gladiators21c756.55$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2465451.1%334 W · 320 L+26.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3941…bdcbbacked Karachi Kings78c738.49$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.67450%2 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Karachi Kings11c736.61$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.841942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Quetta Gladiators57c676.35$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.7720037%74 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1599…a8b6backed Karachi Kings44c625.32$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5532337.2%120 W · 203 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0592…49aabacked Karachi Kings15c599.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.996116.4%10 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c54…da75backed Karachi Kings34c579.21$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.0810953.2%58 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…dd30backed Quetta Gladiators35c517.61$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.876344.4%28 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Karachi Kings48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2609128.6%26 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Quetta Gladiators49c455.48$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Quetta Gladiators3c439.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5531027.4%85 W · 225 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bff…db38backed Karachi Kings35c426.29$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.091741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked Karachi Kings39c410.96$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9610763.6%68 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a1…e821backed Karachi Kings36c410$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.5823555.3%130 W · 105 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e7a…500cbacked Karachi Kings37c410$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.623754.4%129 W · 108 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed Quetta Gladiators15c404.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8414730.6%45 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04a…7cffbacked Karachi Kings60c403.16$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5710947.7%52 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c68…c9b3backed Karachi Kings72c402.18$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0622241.9%93 W · 129 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf55…31b2backed Karachi Kings50c399.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.662050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4d…066dbacked Quetta Gladiators54c369.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022647.3%107 W · 119 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1971…acd7backed Karachi Kings60c359.99$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1412656.3%71 W · 55 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4a…9d39backed Karachi Kings79c358.43$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9914141.8%59 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Quetta Gladiators70c356.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2519450%97 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Quetta Gladiators57c347.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014852%77 W · 71 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c7…007dbacked Quetta Gladiators79c332.37$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.159149.5%45 W · 46 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Quetta Gladiators49c305.56$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1564143.1%276 W · 365 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3052…ca02backed Quetta Gladiators56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16810734.6%37 W · 70 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd033…a7c1backed Karachi Kings48c290.07$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.183834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee6d…0c24backed Karachi Kings51c283.32$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3321035.7%75 W · 135 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b4f…c83fbacked Karachi Kings37c272.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.514639.1%18 W · 28 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+66.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Quetta Gladiators56c252.15$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.461947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb4…f89dbacked Quetta Gladiators56c247.42$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.644254.8%23 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Quetta Gladiators68c238.78$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.318541.6%77 W · 108 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74c7…19cbbacked Quetta Gladiators13c223.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed Quetta Gladiators57c221.43$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.279758.8%57 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+64.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4ab…3c32backed Karachi Kings56c214.63$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.879956.6%56 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Karachi Kings47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7715650.6%79 W · 77 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Quetta Gladiators12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b8…c95bbacked Karachi Kings46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1084348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed Quetta Gladiators47c197.87$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9315742.7%67 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d3e…90f9backed Karachi Kings44c196.86$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.242850%14 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x646f…c762backed Karachi Kings25c195$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.77035.7%25 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Karachi Kings34c194.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3716546.1%76 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc172…47cbbacked Quetta Gladiators54c187.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.34131.7%13 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Quetta Gladiators49c184$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9337848.1%182 W · 196 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x677e…5072backed Karachi Kings55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8219956.3%112 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e87…1c98backed Quetta Gladiators55c179.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.64643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x315d…b420backed Karachi Kings48c156.75$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.025728.1%16 W · 41 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Karachi Kings77c148.3$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.65234.6%18 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd667…dbcbbacked Quetta Gladiators61c147.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d0d…ca21backed Quetta Gladiators57c145.91$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8320342.4%86 W · 117 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Quetta Gladiators63c144.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Karachi Kings15c140$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11910149.5%50 W · 51 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8801…f667backed Karachi Kings79c135.66$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.662568%17 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Quetta Gladiators56c122.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.947061.5%289 W · 181 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Karachi Kings28c119.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4576351.6%394 W · 369 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…f1ccbacked Karachi Kings52c104.93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.163154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2176…b5a6backed Karachi Kings20c104.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+179.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5987…e287backed Karachi Kings42c104.47$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4710948.6%53 W · 56 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1edd…be0fbacked Karachi Kings37c103.3$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.311424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03cd…d809backed Karachi Kings47c102.88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.529661.5%59 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Karachi Kings20c101$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.367931.4%213 W · 466 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Karachi Kings28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7213241.7%55 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Karachi Kings25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758652.3%45 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdcf…c8bebacked Karachi Kings10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902532%8 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4690…94fbbacked Karachi Kings50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5015151.7%78 W · 73 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Quetta Gladiators45c99.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a9…7876backed Karachi Kings48c93.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.22425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Quetta Gladiators53c93.18$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.151050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Karachi Kings62c89.46$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.993920.5%8 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb727…b0d8backed Karachi Kings40c88.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.087126.8%19 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3d…be34backed Karachi Kings63c87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.355747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Quetta Gladiators58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.