Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x740cf8d8c9c5602542b96a83da27204175aef7157d333322df9652faea44453a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 56c | 462.6$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.12 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 314.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 53c | 265.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.34 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 46c | 254.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 47c | 219$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 204.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 161.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 50c | 155.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 68c | 146.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 134.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 41c | 129$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 127.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 45c | 127.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 124.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 118.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 46c | 115.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 53c | 113.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 106.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 46c | 101.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 80.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 77.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 74.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 42c | 71.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 60c | 64.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 62.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 61.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 53.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 59c | 53.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed Yes | 57c | 52.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 43c | 43.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 43.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 42.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 42.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 40.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 40.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 45c | 37.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 39c | 37.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 58c | 33.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 33.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 44c | 33.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 32.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad2…45a0backed Yes | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 30.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 54c | 25.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 24.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 63c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 57c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…caf8backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 79c | 13.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.